A severe geomagnetic storm is expected to hit Earth on Friday, triggering colorful nighttime auroras, or the northern lights. People in the United States could see moderate to strong geomagnetic activity starting around 11 p.m. and lasting through Saturday.
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A strong geomagnetic storm impacted GNSS measurements over the weekend
Updated 13. May at 15:00 UTC
There is an increased likelihood of a new dike intrusion and another eruption in the coming days.
The most likely location for a new eruption is the Sundhnúk crater row.
Warning signs preceding an eruption could be very short.
Ground uplift continues in the Svartsengi area at the same rate as previously observed. Since March 16th, when the last volcanic eruption began, ground uplift has reached approximately 20 cm at the GNSS station in Svartsengi. Magma accumulation continues in the reservoir, and the likelihood of a new dike intrusion and a new eruption continues to increase.
In the previous dike intrusions and eruptions over the past several months, approximately 8 to 13 million cubic meters of magma were recharged to the reservoir beneath Svartsengi between events before the magma migrated to the surface towards the Sundhnúk crater row. Now, the volume of magma added since March 16th has exceeded the previously observed upper limit.
Seismic activity is relatively stable between days. In the last week, approximately 50 to 80 earthquakes were recorded per day, mostly occurring in the areas between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell and south of Þorbjörn. Most of the earthquakes have magnitudes below 1.0, but isolated earthquakes with magnitudes close to 2.0 have been recorded. Signs of a new dike intrusion are expected to be similar to those previously observed, such as localized seismic activity in and around the dike, fast ground deformation, and pressure changes in nearby boreholes.
The Icelandic Meteorological Office continues its 24-hour surveillance of the area. New eruptive fissures could open in the area between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell, and signs of magma migrating towards the surface would likely resemble the initial phases of other recent eruptions in the area. This could occur with little to no warning.
Disturbance in GNSS measurements due to the geomagnetic storm
Land uplift is calculated by measuring the change in the amount of time it takes for a signal to travel from satellites orbiting the earth to GNSS receivers on the ground. If the duration of time for the signal to travel between the satellite and the receiver decreases, it indicates that the land has risen.
Over the weekend, one of the most powerful geomagnetic storms in recent years occurred when solar winds from large sunspots on the Sun hit the Earth. The last geomagnetic storm of a similar magnitude occurred on October 30, 2003.
Strong solar winds send charged particles into the Earth's magnetic field, affecting signal transmissions between GNSS receivers on the ground and satellites. This interference affects the travel time of the signal, causing deformation measurements that could be interpreted as a slowdown in magma accumulation rate. However, this is not the case, as a new data point calculated this morning is at a "normal" location compared to previous measurements. (See graph above).
Disturbances due to geomagnetic storms do not affect the Icelandic Meteorological Office's ability to provide warnings of imminent dike intrusions or eruptions.
Updated 10. May at 18:00 UTC
There is an increased likelihood of a new dike intrusion and another eruption in the coming days.
The most likely location for a new eruption is the Sundhnúk crater row.
Warning signs preceding an eruption could be very brief.
An updated hazard assessment map has been issued.
The trend of land rise at Svartsengi has remained relatively stable since the most recent volcanic eruption ended, with magma accumulation continuing at a similar rate. As of today, it is estimated that approximately 14 million cubic meters of magma has been added to the magma chamber since the eruption began on March 16th.
In the dike intrusions and eruptions over the past few months, approximately 8 to 13 million cubic meters of magma was added to the chamber beneath Svartsengi before it exited the chamber and travelled towards the Sundhnúk crater row. Now, the amount of magma added has surpassed the previously observed upper limit. Observations from the Krafla eruptions can add context to this behavior, revealing that, as more dike intrusions occur, more pressure is required to initiate them. Therefore, it is likely that the magma chamber beneath Svartsengi will eventually feed another intrusion into the Sundhnúk crater row. However, there is uncertainty about when sufficient pressure will be reached to initiate a new dike intrusion and potentially an eruption if magma reaches the surface.
The Icelandic Meteorological Office continues its 24-hour surveillance of the area to closely monitor the activity. New eruptive fissures could open in the area between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell and may resemble the initial phases of other recent eruptions in the area. This could happen with little to no warning. Signs of a new dike intrusion would be similar to those previously observed: localized earthquakes in and around the dike, accelerated deformation, and pressure changes in nearby boreholes.
Increased seismic activity has been recorded at the Sundhnúk crater row in recent days. This increase in seismic activity is likely a sign that stress is being released in and around the recent eruption site on the Sundhnúk crater row due to increased pressure in the magma chamber beneath Svartsengi.
Last night, the Icelandic Meteorological Office's 24-hour surveillance team detected an increase in localized seismic activity south of Stóra-Skógfell, in a similar location to where previous eruptions have started. Deformation and pressure measurements, which would indicate a dike intrusion, did not exhibit significant changes. The activity persisted for a relatively short duration, but it cannot be ruled out that a small amount of magma may have been injected there.
Dangerous to travel near the Sundhnúk crater row
The Icelandic Meteorological Office has issued an updated hazard assessment. The termination of the last eruption has caused updates in several areas, but the current hazard assessment reflects increased chances of a new dike intrusion and possible eruption.
As the crust between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell is heavily fractured, magma is likely to find a clear path to the surface without significant resistance, and therefore, substantial seismic activity may not accompany magma migration through the crust. Therefore, warning times before a new eruption could be very brief or nonexistent, so it is important to exercise extreme caution when travelling to area 3, defined on the Icelandic Meteorological Office's hazard map. The new risk assessment is valid until May 14th, unless the situation changes.
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Chris Mooney, Brady Dennis, Kevin Crowe and John Muyskens -- Washington Post
April 29, 2024
One of the most rapid sea level surges on Earth is besieging the American South, forcing a reckoning for coastal communities across eight U.S. states, a Washington Post analysis found.
At more than a dozen tide gauges spanning from Texas to North Carolina, sea levels are at least six inches higher than they were in 2010 — a change similar to what occurred over the previous five decades.
Scientists are documenting a barrage of impacts — ones, they say, that will confront an even larger swath of U.S. coastal communities in the coming decades — even as they try to decipher the precise causes of this recent surge.
The Gulf of Mexico has experienced twice the global average rate of sea level rise since 2010, a Post analysis of satellite data shows. Few other places on the planet have seen similar rates of increase, such as the North Sea near the United Kingdom.
(more)
READ MORE: Washington Post
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Auroras may be visible as far south as Alabama
Washington Post
May 9, 2024
Multiple outbursts from the sun could trigger magnificent auroras in many parts of the United States this weekend.
Current forecasts project the lights could be seen as far south as Alabama to northern California, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center. Chances of seeing the lights will be highest in the northern United States, Canada and northern Europe.
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May 9, 2024
Israeli officials are furious over Washington’s decision to postpone an arms shipment while Yair Lapid accuses Benjamin Netanyahu of mishandling the situation.
An Israeli drone targeted a car in Lebanon, killing at least four people, whose identity has not been revealed yet.
Meanwhile, 60 Palestinians were killed and 110 others were injured as Israeli strikes in Rafah intensified.
According to Gaza’s Ministry of Health, 34,904 Palestinians have been killed, and 78,514 wounded in Israel’s ongoing genocide in Gaza starting on October 7.
Click here for the previous blogs.
LATEST UPDATES
Wednesday, May 8, 7:30 pm (GMT +2)
UNICEF: The recent escalation in Rafah will cause civilians more pain.
ANADOLU: The confederation of Spanish universities (CRUE), which represents 76 private and public universities, announced on Thursday that it will cut ties with Israeli universities and research centers “that have not expressed a firm commitment to peace and compliance with international humanitarian law.”
ISRAELI ARMY: Three Israeli soldiers were injured as a result of an ambush explosion in Rafah earlier today.
HEZBOLLAH: We launched 5 attacks targeting soldiers and Israeli army positions near the southern Lebanese border.
KIRBY: The operation carried out by Israel in Rafah was limited and aimed to prevent Hamas from smuggling weapons and money into Gaza. We share Israel’s goal of the sustainable defeat of Hamas.
KAN: There are unbridgeable gaps in the prisoner exchange deal negotiations between Hamas and Israel after the Israeli team returned from the Egyptian capital, Cairo.
Wednesday, May 8, 6:30 pm (GMT +2)
DAVID CAMERON: The UK has a different position from the United States on the issue of stopping arms sales to Israel.
US SOURCE to Al-Jazeera: It was decided to temporarily stop the talks due to the current situation in Rafah. The Hamas delegation headed to Doha, while the delegations of Israel, Qatar and Egypt remained in Cairo.
WALL STREET JOURNAL (quoting Israeli officials): The complete destruction of Hamas is out of reach.
DECLASSIFIED UK: The British Army conducted 200 spy missions over Gaza.
SOURCES to Al-Jazeera: Israeli military ambulance crews were working to transport wounded soldiers from the axis of the incursion into the Zaytoun neighborhood.
KAN: During a call with Netanyahu, Biden expressed his concerns about the operation in Rafah before the residents were evacuated.
NBC: Israel wants to exclude Rafah from the ceasefire agreement. Israel refuses to agree to a deal that does not enable it to continue operations in Rafah even during the ceasefire.
ISRAELI FINANCE MINISTER: The budget’s fiscal deficit amounted to 7% of GDP, or $35.7 billion, during the 12 months ending last April.
AL-QASSAM BRIGADES: The Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades announced the detonation of “a booby-trapped tunnel in an engineering force of the occupation army, consisting of 3 vehicles, a digger, and a number of soldiers. We killed and wounded them east of the city of Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip.”
CHAIRMAN OF THE US SENATE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE: I remain critical of Netanyahu’s handling of the war in Gaza. I support President Biden’s decision to stop the delivery of heavy bombs to Israel.
TURKISH TRADE MINISTER: Turkish Trade Minister Omer Polat confirmed that the trade embargo with Israel will continue until a permanent ceasefire is implemented in Gaza.
Wednesday, May 8, 4:00 pm (GMT +2)
KAN: Ben-Gvir announced the establishment of the first company of ultra-Orthodox Jews in the Israeli Border Police.
AL-QASSAM BRIGADES: Two Zionist vehicles invading the south of the Zaytoun neighborhood in Gaza City with a Yassin 105 shell and a Shawaz device.”
HEZBOLLAH: Our fighters targeted one of the newly developed technical systems at the Israeli Ramia site.
GALLANT (in response to US President Joe Biden):
We tell our enemies and friends that the State of Israel cannot be subjugated.
We will achieve our goals in the north and south, and we will paralyze Hamas, destroy Hezbollah, and achieve security.
We will preserve the existence of the State of Israel at all costs.
IZZAT AL-RISHQ: By invading Rafah, Israel seeks to block the efforts of the mediators.
Wednesday, May 8, 3:00 pm (GMT +2)
HAMAS: Our negotiating delegation left the Egyptian capital, Cairo, returning to the Qatari capital, Doha.
AL-JAZEERA: Sirens sounded in Israeli towns in the Western Galilee.
DAVID CAMERON: There is a fundamental difference between his country and the United States regarding arms deals to Israel.
Wednesday, May 8, 2:00 pm (GMT +2)
ISRAELI OFFICIAL (to Israel Hayom): The war council will meet to discuss Biden’s statements.
AL-JAZEERA: A Palestinian was killed and another injured in an Israeli bombing that targeted a motorcycle on Salah al-Din Street, east of the city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip.
AXIOS (quoting US official): The suspension of an arms shipment to Israel was an expression of Washington’s concern about Rafah.
AL-JAZEERA: The Israeli occupation army artillery launched violent bombardment on the southern areas of the Al-Zaytoun and Al-Sabra neighborhoods in the southern Gaza Strip.
GAZA HEALTH MINISTRY: The Israeli occupation begins to carry out a new genocide by closing the crossings and preventing entry and exit from them, especially the travel of the wounded and sick, and the entry of aid, medicines, medical supplies, food trucks, and fuel needed to operate hospitals.
Wednesday, May 8, 1:00 pm (GMT +2)
AL-QUDS BRIGADES: We bombed with mortar shells a command and control center for the Israeli occupation army on the supply line to the Netzarim axis, south of Gaza City.
AL-QASSAM BRIGADES:Our fighters targeted an Israeli occupation army D-9 bulldozer with a Yassin 105 shell southeast of the Al-Sabra neighborhood in Gaza City.
ISRAELI DEFENSE MINISTER: We must establish a large city east of the Ariel settlement in the northern West Bank.
AL-JAZEERA: Three Palestinians were killed and others were injured as a result of the Israeli occupation army’s bombing of a mosque in the Brazil neighborhood, south of the city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip.
ISRAELI MINISTER OF COMMUNICATIONS: I ordered a raid on Al Jazeera’s studios in Nazareth.
AL-JAZEERA: An Israeli raid on the Brazil neighborhood in Rafah results in casualties.
Wednesday, May 8, 12:30 pm (GMT +2)
RUSSIAN DEPUTY FM: Washington’s approach to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as always being “one-sided and irresponsible.”
AL-JAZEERA: One Palestinian was killed and two injured when occupation aircraft bombed a house for the Abu Sharia family in the Al-Sabra neighborhood, south of Gaza City.
HERZOG (to Ben-Gvir): Irresponsible statements should be avoided.
AL-QUDS BRIGADES: We bombed Israeli military concentrations east of the city of Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip, with a barrage of 60-caliber mortar shells, amid continued clashes between resistance factions and the occupation forces penetrating the area.
Wednesday, May 8, 11:30 am (GMT +2)
WASHINGTON POST: Israel expressed its deep frustration over the arming delay and the fact that the matter had become public.
SMOTRICH: Smotrich said that what he considered the “danger” of the establishment of a Palestinian state has become more tangible than ever before.
IRANIAN FM: Washington must choose between pressure on Israel or more tension in the region.
Wednesday, May 8, 11:00 am (GMT +2)
AL-QASSAM BRIGADES: We targeted with mortar shells the occupation forces penetrating east of the city of Rafah
GAZA HEALTH MINISTRY: 34,904 Palestinians have been killed, and 78,514 wounded in Israel’s ongoing genocide in Gaza starting on October 7.
CNN (quoting US defense official): Three mortar shells fell near an unloading site designated for the Gaza dock on Wednesday, without causing any casualties.
HAARETZ (citing Israeli official): Tel Aviv must listen to American warnings, otherwise it will find itself facing a complicated situation.
BEN-GVIR: In response to US President Joe Biden’s threat to stop arms exports to Israel, Ben-Gvir wrote on X that Hamas loves Biden.
Wednesday, May 8, 10:00 am (GMT +2)
UNRWA: 80,000 people have been displaced from Rafah since the intensification of the Israeli operation.
LEBANESE MEDICAL SOURCE: Four Lebanese were killed when an Israeli drone targeted a car in the town of Baflih, southern Lebanon. Their identities are not yet clear.
AL-QUDS BRIGADES: We bombed with heavy-caliber mortar shells Israeli army military concentrations east of the Al-Shoka neighborhood, east of the city of Rafah, where the resistance is engaged in fierce clashes with the occupation forces.
KAN (citing Israeli officials): It is impossible to start an operation inside Rafah without coordinating with Washington.
AL-JAZEERA: Israeli vehicles are stationed in Madinat Al-Zahra in the central Gaza Strip.
ANSARALLAH: Two Israeli ships were targeted in the Gulf of Aden and a third in the Indian Ocean with ballistic missiles and drones.
AL-JAZEERA: A woman and her son were killed in an Israeli bombing of Deir al-Balah, amid the intensification of the occupation since the early hours of dawn.
CHANNEL 12 (quoting prominent Israeli official): The army will enter Rafah in any case and can do so without aid.
Wednesday, May 8, 09:00 am (GMT +2)
LAPID (to Maariv): Netanyahu was offered a safety net, but he did not make the deal because he is a prisoner of the insane Ben Gvir and Smotrich. Biden’s threat to prevent the supply of weapons comes as a result of the failed management of the Netanyahu government.
AL-JAZEERA: An Israeli drone targeted a car in the town of Baflih, southern Lebanon, while local media reported injuries, without identifying its owners.
AL-JAZEERA: An Israeli raid targeted a house on Al-Madhaa Street in the Al-Geneina neighborhood, east of the city of Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip, where the occupation is intensifying its bombing of homes.
ISRAELI ARMY: The occupation army’s vehicles made a limited incursion near the Wadi Gaza Bridge, north of the Nuseirat camp in the central Gaza Strip.
Wednesday, May 8, 08:00 am (GMT +2)
GILAD ERDAN: Joe Biden’s position would prevent the achievement of one of Tel Aviv’s goals in its war on Gaza, which is toppling Hamas.
AL-JAZEERA: an Israeli artillery bombardment targeted the Rafah municipality building in the southern Gaza Strip, saying that the bombing also targeted the eastern neighborhoods of the city.
SYRIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE: Syrian air defenses shot down Israeli missiles launched from the occupied Golan towards the Damascus countryside, adding that the missiles were targeting a building whose nature was not determined.
Wednesday, May 8, 07:00 am (GMT +2)
ISRAELI ARMY: An Israeli soldier was killed and another wounded in a bombing from Lebanon yesterday.
Wednesday, May 8, 06:00 am (GMT +2)
ISRAELI ARMY: The occupation army announces the bombing of “targets” in central Gaza.
THE GUARDIAN: Pro-Gaza protests at Trinity College in Dublin, Ireland, ended after the college administration agreed to sever its ties with Israeli companies.
Wednesday, May 8, 04:00 am (GMT +2)
PALESTINIAN MEDIA: Israeli forces recently penetrated the southern areas of the Al-Zaytoun neighborhood, southeast of Gaza City.
Wednesday, May 8, 01:30 am (GMT +2)
Hamas (Izzat al-Rishq, a member of the political bureau of Hamas):
Israel is not serious about reaching an agreement and is using negotiations as a cover to invade Rafah.
Netanyahu is trying to invent pretexts to evade negotiations and blames Hamas and the mediators.
Hamas’s approval of the mediators’ proposal confused Netanyahu and put him in trouble.
Hamas stands by its position regarding the proposal.
(The Palestine Chronicle)
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Ramzy Baroud -- World News Trust
May 9, 2024
Identity is fluid, because concepts such as culture, history and collective self-perceptions are never fixed. They are in a constant state of flux and revision.
For hundreds of years, the map of the Roman Empire seemed more Mediterranean and, ultimately, Middle Eastern than European -- per the geographic, or even geopolitical demarcation of today's Europe.
Hundreds of years of conflicts, wars and invasions redefined the Roman identity, splitting it by the end of the 4th century between West and East. But, even then, the political lines constantly changed, maps were repeatedly redrawn and identities fittingly redefined.
This applies to most of human history. True, war and conflict have served as drivers of change of maps - -and of our collective relationship with these maps -- but culture is also shaped and remodeled by other factors.
The permeation of the English language, for example, as a main tool of communication in the post-Cold War era, resulted in an invasion by U.S. and to a lesser extent, British entertainment - films, music, sports, etc. – of many parts of the world. This incursion has disrupted the natural cultural development of many societies, widening the generational gap and redefining social conceptions, values and priorities.
Such a sudden change in cultural flow is hardly conducive to the health of a nation, whose sense of self is the outcome of hundreds, if not thousands of years of social conflicts, struggles and, often, growth.
Thus, identity, as a permanent political signifier, cannot be trusted, since this vague concept is in a constant state of motion and because of the unprecedented connectivity among peoples all over the world. While such connectivity can lead to slow ethnocide, which is difficult to detect, let alone avoid, it can also help beleaguered, oppressed nations fight back.
Once upon a time, such self-serving theories as that of an impending "clash of civilizations" were all the rage among many U.S.-Western academics.
Samuel Huntington's division of the world into "major civilizations" whose relationships will be defined by conflict was a convenient addition to a history of such racist tropes, going as far as the early phases of Western colonialism.
Such thinking was propelled forward by political expediency, not rational thought, as it was marketed heavily following the collapse of the Soviet order, the first Iraq war and the emboldened Western militarism across Asia, the Middle East and the rest of the Global South.
Linking violent endeavors with such lofty words as civilizations -- some driven by universal values, while others, supposedly by extremism -- was a mere reintroduction of old mantras as Europe's "civilization mission" and the American "manifest destiny."
It all failed, anyway, or, more accurately, could not produce the desired outcome of keeping the world hostage to the West's definition of civilization, identities and human relations, thus the supposedly inevitable "clash."
Currently, there are signs of a new world emerging. It is not shaped by civilizational quests or impulses, but by the same old historical paradigm: those seeking power that can widen and protect their economic interests, and those fighting back, seeking freedom, justice, equality, rule of law and the like.
Those pursuing power can, and are uniting beyond their supposed civilization inclinations, religious values, racial orientations and geography.
Even before the Russia-Ukraine war, a new cold war was already emerging, between a declining empire, the United States, and a rising one, China.
Both Ukraine and Russia, according to Huntington, would serve as textbook examples of "Western civilization" versus the "Sinic civilization" -- lumped with others under the "Eastern world."
Yet, neither the refined approach of Barack Obama nor the populist style of Donald Trump succeeded in deepening this presumed civilizational clash. The rest of the world's relations with China continue to be governed by economic interests.
Even Washington's European allies, who rely heavily on Chinese trade and technological advancements, are not entirely persuaded in joining the trade war on Beijing in the name of common Western values and other such rhetoric.
As for those fighting back, the war on Gaza was an unexpected rallying cry for unity. Indeed, the war has resulted in a whole new formation of international relations that hardly existed prior to October 7.
Those speaking out for the Palestinians are not governed by religious, racial, geographic or even cultural boundaries. From Namibia to South Africa, from Brazil and Colombia to Nicaragua, and from China, to Russia to the Middle East, solidarity with Gaza is hardly defined from a narrow "civilization" perspective.
This includes the mass protests across the world, including throughout Europe and North America, where people from every color, race, age group, gender, religion and more are united in a single chant: ceasefire now.
Of course, there will always be those invested in dividing us around whatever lines may serve their political agendas which are almost always linked to economic interests and military might.
Yet, the global resistance to such delusional academics and chauvinistic politicians is stronger than ever before. Gaza has proven to be the ultimate unifier, as it has drawn a line that bonds all of Huntington’s civilizational groups, not around imminent conflict, but global justice.
- Dr. Ramzy Baroud is a journalist, author and the Editor of The Palestine Chronicle. He is the author of six books. His latest book, co-edited with Ilan Pappé, is ‘Our Vision for Liberation: Engaged Palestinian Leaders and Intellectuals Speak Out’. His other books include ‘My Father was a Freedom Fighter’ and ‘The Last Earth’. Baroud is a Non-resident Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA). His website is www.ramzybaroud.net
- It Is Time To Ask The Question: ‘What Do Palestinians In Gaza Want?’ -- Ramzy Baroud
- Iceland Volcano: Ongoing Magma Accumulation And Land Rise In Svartsengi -- Iceland Met Office
- Iceland Volcano: Land Keeps Rising At Svartsengi -- Iceland Met Office
- Radical Right vs. Radical Left: Terrorist Theory and Threat -- US Justice Department
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