The world's most valuable real estate is comprised of two
imaginary boxes. These boxes are two miles wide and twenty five miles long. They are the international shipping lanes at the apex of
the Strait of Hormuz. Each day, tankers carrying
16 million barrels of oil worth $800 million pass through
these boxes.
By John Damien -- Information Clearing House
March 7, 2007 -- The most valuable
piece of real estate in the world is not to be found in New
York, London or Tokyo. The world's most valuable real estate is comprised of two
imaginary boxes. These boxes are two miles wide and twenty five miles long. They are the international shipping lanes at the apex of
the Strait of Hormuz. Each day, tankers carrying
16 million barrels of oil worth $800 million pass through
these boxes. If oil is the blood supply of the industrial
economy, the Strait of Hormuz is the jugular. In any conflict between the United States and Iran, control of those
shipping lanes will instantly become the focus of the entire
conflict. The main
job of the U..S Navy would be to ensure the Strait remains open. That implies pre-emptive action against any Iranian
facility or emplacement capable of launching anti-ship missiles
against targets in the area of the Strait.
The use by Iran of "the oil weapon" has been
widely discussed and examined. What has attracted less attention is the ability of the
Untied States to use the oil weapon against Iran.
By occupying three key islands on the Gulf approaches to
the Strait, the United States could deny passage to any ship it pleases. America could thus close Iran's only major route for oil
exports, while ensuring safe passage for the rest. Although 20 percent of the world's oil trade passes through the
Strait, Iran accounts for only
2.5 million bbl/day of world exports, or just over 15 percent of
the traffic in the Strait. Because of their disputed legal status, it would be
possible to extend a U.S. presence indefinitely. Occupation of
these islands could thus deliver to the United States a strategic coup
great enough to justify a war with Iran in the first place. The United States has two Marine Expeditionary groups in the area
capable of such an operation.
It is no secret that the U.S. Government wants
regime change in Tehran. Their problem is the inability of U.S. military, economic,
or diplomatic power to deliver.
As discussed in a
previous article, there are urgent reasons for the United States to
escalate the war to Iran that have nothing to do with regime
change. However, for
a lasting strategic re-alignment in the region, regime change is
highly desirable. One must assume that even the most hawkish agitators in
Washington and Jerusalem don't believe bombing alone will bring
down the Iranian government. The only feasible means of damaging the political
stability of the clerical regime is by attacking the Iranian
economy. Despite the
oil money flowing into the country, the
economy is shaky. Unemployment and economic dissatisfaction run high.
This represents the only significant point of contention
between the regime and its citizens.
A blockade of Iranian oil exports would bring the fragile
economy to its knees in a matter of weeks.
If, and its a big if, the citizens of Iran blame
their government for the economic ruin, there is a possibility
of regime change.
Stopping Iranian oil exports is an easy thing to
do militarily. One
simply destroys the export facilities.
Unfortunately, it could take years to rebuild those
facilities. If a new
government were to take power in Tehran, a lack of ability to
export oil would become acutely inconvenient for everyone.
Better to find a way that allows the United States to turn the
exports on and off at will.
Interdicting Iranian bound tankers would be ideal as
virtually all Iranian oil exports pass through the Straits.
200 Marines and 10 Blackhawk Helicopters would be
sufficient to impose U.S. directives on all the traffic in the
area. However,
parking an aircraft carrier in the Strait would be inviting
disaster. No nearby
bases are available because of the political problems a U.S.
presence would bring. Occupying several key islands astride the shipping lanes
themselves would be ideal.
Three such islands exist. Tunb al Sughra, Tunb al Kubra and
Abu Musa are small islands astride the shipping lanes on the
Gulf side of the Strait. Abu Musa rises to a height of 100m, giving an excellent
view from Bandar-e Lengeh on the Iranian coast to Dubai in the
south. Abu Musa and
al Kubra have airstrips. The islands are claimed by both the UAE and Iran. Iran has occupied the islands since the 1970's. The issue is an ongoing concern of both UAE and the Gulf
Cooperation Council. The UAE has taken the matter to the World Court and the
UN. The GCC
included a statement on the islands in the
communiqués of its December 2006 summit. Iranian occupation of the islands is therefore disputed
at best and illegal at worst. That legal uncertainty presents an opportunity to the
United States. In a
wider war between the United States and Iran, the United States would undertake
operations against a series of Iranian islands and mainland
locations in any conflict over the Strait. The U.S. Navy and Marines would have to flush out possibly
thousands of anti-ship missiles stored in the surrounding area. Those operations would involve landings by Marines and
special forces. But
they couldn't stay, and they wouldn't want to. However, in the case of the Tunb islands, it can stay if
the UAE invites it to do so. There are no hostile locals to police and none of the
complications found in Iraq. If imperial dreams still haunt the sleep of George Bush,
then permanent U.S. control of the Strait of Hormuz is in the
cards.
John Damien lives in Toronto and can be reached at
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LINK: Information Clearing House